20 % are winners. They’re not sold out.
Disclaimer. I’m no mathematician. But I googled some statistics and I think this is right.
5 nfts gives you about a 2/3 chance of winning
6 = 75% chance of winning
7 = almost 80%(79%) or 4 out of 5 chance
8 = 83% chance of winning
9 = 87%
10 = 89%
11 = 91.5%
12 = 92.2%
All of these numbers are rounded up or down just a little to avoid long decimal places.
Seems like 6 or 7 might be the sweet spot for getting to higher odds per number of purchases. You can see how the higher the number the smaller the percent increase.
On the other hand, statistically, you’re getting closer and closer to winning every time with higher and higher odds. At 11 12 and 13 and above you only have less than a 1 out of 10 chance of losing each time.
But one other thought. You just might do better by making individual purchases. I know when I bought a few at a time they came out in consecutive numbers. Maybe spreading out your nft numbers helps instead of just buying a random starting point and having 899 900 901 and 902.
From the little I know about statistics it shouldn’t matter which approach you take. But intuitively I feel like it would help to spread them out. But intuition isn’t always right especially when it comes to statistics. And yet statistics can do some funny things the deeper you look into it so I’m not completely sure in this case.
