Hi I just thought I’d make a post where everyone can share things they’ve invested / predictions
for example like cryptocurrency / bitcoin and all else
:)
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You go first, what did you invest in ?
What are your predictions ?
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I won’t share my opinions, I’m not going to be responsible for anything anyone of you do with your money.
But I’ll share this: I started investing as soon as I turned 18 yo, I had been practicing mock trading before, I’ve been obsessed with business since I was a kid reading about the standard oil and the robber barons.
By the time I was 12-13yo my teacher were sick of having me make a report on John D Rockefeller anytime I was allowed to choose a theme. English ? John D rockefeller. History ? John D Rockefeller and the industrial revolution. Economics ? John D Rockefeller and monopolies.
I had been reading financial history, balance sheets for fun, I knew all the paperwork and reporting necessary to become and stay a public company, how the SEC works, business strategies, Import/export, biographies whatever. I had been reading the financial news almost everyday for years.
So, I had a feeling about companies and CEOs, before I started looking at price/earnings and stuff like that. I had some pretty good success, based mostly on instinct, general knowledge and some rudimentary analysis of said company.
But then I tried cryptos, I didn’t know anything about it, I didn’t have a passion for cryptos, but people were all becoming millionaires. I tried to read a little to get a feeling and I trusted popular opinions, predictions, forecasting. I relied on other people. Burned my money.
And it kept happening every time I invested in something else than a stock, even stocks that were not my type of stocks. Everytime I tried to ride the wave, the movements: I crashed, I burned.
My point is: don’t listen to people and if you do, make sure they have a good track record and they invested a bunch of their money in it (ask to see or don’t complain later). Random people on the internet saying they know their sht are not to be trusted. Worst thing that can happen is they are right the first time and you build belief in them or that passive attitude.
Some people can reliably make money trading currencies, other in cryptos or commodities, but they know their sht and it doesn’t mean they can trade anything
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Well… I do sort of see why they got a bit tired of that 
Anyway, my advice is that you should understand that crypto is much more risky than most people realise.
It’s extremely easy to make money on a market rally when you just buy.
It’s important to understand that most things that have a (financial) market have an inherent value.
FX, you have entire economies, fiscal and monetary policies as well as.expectation of these factors to back the value of a currency Vs another.
Stocks - stocks are equity, and as such it has a value proportionate to the value of the company.
Etc.
What’s really the fundamental value of 1 BTC? How do you even price it? Based on what data?
What I’m saying is…
It’s cool to invest in any kind of currency, but the smart thing to do is to have your savings separate (linked to some funds or indexes) and then play around with money you can actually affort to lose.
Like someone at work was telling us how he started with 1k, made 10k in a couple of days then he lost it all lol. And “lol” was exactly the tone of the story, which I don’t think it would be for everyone.
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This is the fundamental key for anything regarding money.
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I’m sure some automated deep internet search to pick up how often people talk about a crypto and the general sentiments could help a lot… if it was real time enough
What are the influencers saying ?
It’s a social thing, brand it and it gains in value
When to sell ?
Sop loss
As long as some suckers wants to get rich quick, they’ll keep buying, some will get rich, confirming that it’s possible.
We’re just not smart enough to hack it, but I’m sure some nerds with big computers can or could… (besides pump and dump)
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That’s kind of my point.
Inherent/fundamental value Vs sentiment.
Personally, I don’t particularly want to buy something which I think is not worth the price fundamentally,
But I might do with “play” money 
if I think it’s a good opportunity to trade the sentiment. But then you may miss 🤷
If you buy something that’s fundamentally undervalued, it’s a question of time until it converges to the fundamental value, even if it gets smashed on the short run. So as long as you believe your analysis, you can keep the position and believe if will bounce back.
With crypto it’s not so straightforward, compared to the valuation of equity or FX or even commodities (which are generally a bit more complex).
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The basis of the modern ecomonic system is still gold…
What’s the “inherent” value of gold again?
(There was once a value for it in very ancient times… “The spice”… but that hasn’t really applied in the last 50,000 years)
Simple answer.
Fiat is inherently inflationary and can be controlled by the whim of a central bank
Crypto is based on math, deflationary, and can’t be controlled by the whims of a government.
We won’t even talk about how actual “money” is literally pieces of paper having NO value outside of the “trust” of the government to eventually pay it back or give it meaning. (cause governments and countries never fail and their currency becoming worthless)
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You wish 
, it’s not even paper anymore and governments don’t pay it back.
But yeah 
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Well, cryptocurrencies can be controlled at least now for governments.
Look at how China declared crypto illegal and lowered the price, the US secretary of the treasury spoke of the US having no plans to ban cryptocurrencies and the price increased.
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Well yeah…that’s the point.
All money is just … a symbol of “trust”
One could say Oil is the market that has inherent value and makes the world go round… ie the Petrodollar. Fine.
Find someone on here that can pay for the groceries (actually stuff needed to live with ie inherert value) with even the finest barrel of crude oil at their local grocery store.
They will laugh you out of the store and tell you to come back with “real money”
And we are so far removed from the “inherent” value of something being directly used as “money” as to be impossible to coorelate.
The concept of money has always been about “trust” until we go back to the days of direct bartering.
…
The money in your account is book money, also called fiat money. The concept of fiat money was first introduced in Europe by Arab merchants in the Middle Ages. Instead of dealing with actual notes and coins, they wrote down credits and claims in their account books. We mostly use book money today, for example when paying with a bank card or authorising a money transfer to pay our electricity bill. Only when we withdraw money at a cash machine is book money converted into paper money.
So again… crypto (more properly blockchain) is the natural extension of the electronic era we’ve been living in for the past 70 years.
No one’s even carrying around several thousand dollars in “cash money” to pay for their new car.
hmm… actually just read an article about this… lemme see if I can find it.
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But that’s one agent just “choosing” not to participate which decreased the demand and confidence. It can’t decide what the value of cryptos will be unilaterally or completely mess with the quantity of cryptos, without using them.
And I think that’s what it’s all about, money, like countries, flags etc… are social construct. It gains in value the more widespread it is and the more embedded it is in our lives and therefore harder to replace. The bigger the network, the more value it has. And if it’s decentralized the less individual agents have an effect on it.
Right now, it’s not widespread
Therefore, a few agents can still have great power other the market
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I know, that’s always my point
I don’t believe in inherent value, I believe in demand. That’s the only thing that matters to me and people are not efficient or rational. They are social creatures acting on biology, culture and individual preferences.
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i’m agreeing with you but expounding on the point 
This was what the article was about.
How the entire market of anything is a social construct and a certain percentage of the collective consciousness agreeing on that social construct.
The example used, was how the Native American laughed at the European settlers when they talked of “owning the land” or the sea…
The concept was so far removed from their reality that, of course, “they sold Manhattan for some beads”.
But over time, we have made this social construct of “owning land” and the thing that proves you “own that land” is a piece of paper recorded at the county courthouse known as a deed.
And the only thing preventing others from using that land, is still basic force…either from you or from the “agreed upon” policemen and laws that we have all agreed upon have weight to that piece of paper meaning you own the land.
In other words, a social construct that has no inherent meaning unless agreed upon.
That’s all crypto is right now.
A certain percentage has agreed it is has value.
Some still haven’t.
But as more and more people and countries agree that this “digital record” means I can exchange it for this other socially constructing thing called paper currency, then it’s just a matter of time before everyone agrees that 1 bitcoin = “whatever amount of paper book money” everyone agrees upon and can be used as such
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That’s the potential, but right now it not even close to crossing the chasm as far as I see it.
I see it as a new industry, with Bitcoin looking like the winner but it’s not sure and I don’t understand the technology which will make it more adoptable or not. The market is not clearly defined either.
It makes it more risky and speculative and the expert or lucky will make money.
That’s enough to have reservations about investing
I can envision a scenario where the first wave of crypto dies off, scales back and pop up later with a faster adoption
At this point, it’s gambling or playing the long haul
Just my opinion
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Here’s the funny thing about social constructs.
Because deep down, all true economists know that paper currency have no inherent value, the IMF charter says that any country’s national currency has to be accepted by the World Bank and every other country as a means of acceptable payment of debt between countries.
El Savador just made Bitcoin a national currency last month.
Of course, the wealthier countries with more accepted, healthier currencies are not pleased
But…
Game. Set. Match for the eventual widespread acceptance of Bitcoin.
Now more “poorer” countries are leaning towards the exact same actions as, again, Bitcoin is deflationary (at least static) and can’t be messed with by “printing more” to play whatever games with trade deficits, internal debts, etc on the international scene.
Which again, makes Bitcoin act like as gold acted as, between countries for a few decades…A stable peg on which every other country can’t significantly manipulate.
With El Savator’s actions, It’s not “if”, it’s “when” at this point.
Bitcoin Adoption: Which Countries Could Follow El Salvador?
- Panama. Panama’s move towards bitcoin adoption occurred on the same day that El Salvador became the first country to accept bitcoin as legal tender. …
- Ukraine. …
- Cuba. …
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I knew about El Salvador, but I didn’t see it as so important. A broke country that can’t handle it’s currency. Many African countries have their money made and managed by Europeans. El Salvador chose to ride Bitcoin, it’s really small and can benefits
Maybe i should reconsider
The US still hasn’t switched to the metric system outside academia. I don’t see major countries surrendering any time soon
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lol i fixed the misnamed country. 
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Oh, Panama is using it
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